Measuring Cycle Highs

There are some examples where cycles are best drawn across cycle highs.

An example of this is in the Euro, both against the Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Historically the Euro is an offspring of the group of currencies that formed the Euro-zone and prior to January 1st 1999 the European currencies were priced as currency per Dollar. However, on creation of the Euro the quoting method changed to Dollars per Euro.

Thus, when looking at the historical data series including the synthetic history created by measuring a trade weighted contribution by each previous currency pair, clearly the price highs in the Euro used to be price lows when the individual currencies were quoted as currency per Dollar.

This means that the chart has effectively inverted and as such we need a method of applying cycles to math highs. The cycle drawing tool in Dealbook is designed to measure cycle/price lows. What I have done to overcome this is created an "inverted chart" in Chart Studio as an indicator which can then be inserted into a chart. Since it is impossible to create an indicator that looks like a bar I have had to take the close of each bar only. This is done very simply in Chart Studio thus:

Indicator Inverse_Chart ;
Draw LastPrice("Close") ;
Begin
LastPrice := Close * (-1) ;
end.

Following this select "Build" and select "Verify Module" from the top menu bar
You will be prompted to enter a name for this analysis technique. Write in "Inverse Chart".
The Select "Build" again and this time you should see this succeed in the output window at the bottom of the studio.
Then select "Build" again but this time choose "Install Module"
The module will be installed into the User Modules.

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The Art of Hedging in Options Trading

A hedge is an investment made to offset the risk incurred by entering another investment. Essentially you are setting up a bet on both sides so that one offsets the other and you can end up winning either way.

Think of it as a form of insurance.

Options are frequently used in hedging.

For example, you can speculate that the market price will rise in the future and buy a call today. But, because the market is uncertain and you're not certain it will rise, you simultaneously buy a put option.
By carefully selecting the appropriate combinations of strike price, expiration date and type of option an investor can minimize risk and maximize the probability of making a profit.

So how does it all work?
Well let's take a look at a common hedging strategy: the Strangle.
In this strategy, an investor holds both call and put options with the same maturity, but with different strike prices.
The contracts are purchased 'out of the money' and are therefore cheaper. 'Out of the money' means the strike price of the underlying asset is higher (for a call) or lower (for a put) than the current market price.
For example let's say Intel (INTC) is currently trading at $40 per share. You could buy one call at $3 and one put at $2 with the call having a strike price of $45, the put $35. Your total investment would be ($3 x 100) + ($2 x 100) = $500.
If the price over the length of the contracts stays between $35 and $45 the total possible loss = $500, the cost of the options. So your risk in this kind of hedge is limited to $500.

Suppose the price drops near expiration to $25. The call would expire worthless, but the put is worth ($35-$25) x 100 = $1000 - ($2 x 100) = $800. Subtract the cost of the call, $800 - $300 = $500. So that's your net profit (ignoring commissions and taxes).
The difference between the exposure and the potential profit represents a kind of hedge. Though you are essentially 'betting' that the price could go either way, your downside is limited to the combined cost of the put and the call.

There are, not surprisingly, nearly as many hedging strategies as there are investors. A couple of common types are:

The collar: Hold the underlying asset and simultaneously both buy a put and sell a call of the same asset. The short call limits gains, but the long put hedges against any losses from the underlying asset.
The protective put: Buy the asset and also buy a put option on the same asset. At expiration, the asset may have gained (eliminating the value of the put option), but the rise in the asset offsets the loss
And there are a whole host of other variations. Most do involve speculating on the price direction of the underlying asset, while taking advantage of the leverage, cost and timing characteristics of options. As with any investment strategy, make sure you understand the pros and cons before laying down your bet.


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